Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 4.264447 5.014900 5.845676 6.831747 7.968318 9.235308 10.752694
2025-08-17 2.890943 3.831774 4.988976 6.508782 8.443085 10.812667 13.924195
2025-08-24 2.142983 3.145166 4.492269 6.416446 9.071642 12.580210 17.535524
2025-08-31 1.661633 2.665502 4.122497 6.358119 9.660125 14.306365 21.272623
2025-09-07 1.401883 2.429319 4.022379 6.620378 10.683447 16.707379 26.195219
2025-09-14 1.161490 2.162494 3.812119 6.656321 11.340356 18.617624 30.591883
2025-09-21 0.974337 1.939460 3.622197 6.675256 11.944728 20.483668 35.093775
2025-09-28 0.825703 1.750601 3.450684 6.684836 12.513311 22.328646 39.729131
2025-10-05 0.782285 1.749547 3.608334 7.287096 14.158549 26.102797 47.901364
2025-10-12 0.700792 1.655000 3.573226 7.523835 15.171981 28.891417 54.658921
2025-10-19 0.631252 1.570618 3.541836 7.757435 16.197790 31.790153 61.867451
2025-10-26 0.552385 1.448922 3.413327 7.775584 16.806322 33.980962 67.991128
2025-11-02 0.460033 1.278805 3.159525 7.510124 16.846940 35.164888 72.468208
2025-11-09 0.375820 1.109206 2.877309 7.141045 16.630527 35.839043 76.065118
2025-11-16 0.321889 1.004364 2.724809 7.034640 16.949488 37.594359 81.930322
2025-11-23 0.278547 0.917479 2.599217 6.969109 17.344969 39.537683 88.345843
2025-11-30 0.258023 0.890723 2.619201 7.253594 18.557830 43.292904 98.797123
2025-12-07 0.229226 0.831977 2.544980 7.292404 19.204350 45.896569 107.059407
2025-12-14 0.203501 0.776218 2.468466 7.312896 19.807678 48.459328 115.453493
2025-12-21 0.180755 0.724215 2.392744 7.323277 20.385793 51.016718 124.052063
2025-12-28 0.180569 0.749769 2.546376 7.977884 22.646478 57.596418 142.095410
2026-01-04 0.168116 0.728530 2.556687 8.235097 23.921966 62.005977 155.595444
2026-01-11 0.156618 0.707888 2.565294 8.488847 25.217231 66.574221 169.818771